7th and 8th seed prediction part two

A Quick Tangent

Before we start the Eastern Conference I'd like to begin my mentioning a team I'd forgot about completely in yesterday's post, The New Orleans Pelican. It is my opinion that this team made a huge mistake by trying to rush the rebuilding process with the questionable Jrue Holiday trade and Tyreke Evans signing. That is not to say they are horrible moves by any means, nor do I believe that either are bad players. However, this team clearly has a new ownership that is not patient and they have mortgaged their future for one overpaid and one overrated player (they could both easily fit under each description by the way). Jrue Holiday is a bit overhyped in my opinion since last year his stats were inflated by being the only facilitator on a bad team requiring him to be the focal point of the offense. I think it was a fluke year personally a bit though he is certainly a solid starting point guard. I'd not rate him as an all-star level point guard, and moreover he's really not much better than Jeff Teague who makes around four million dollars less each year. Listen, I would be happy with Holiday as my point guard any day of the year, but trading Nerlens Noel and another likely lottery pick in a stacked draft is not something I can support. He is simply not that valuable and that huge of an upgrade over new King Geives Vazquez. The defensive Two Towers tandem that a Noel Davis combination could have created, with Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson's shooting touches would have been the basis of a very dangerous two way team. Instead they've basically supplied the Sixers with possibly two future all stars. And lets face it, Tyreke Evens is a position less ball handler who can't shoot. Still, Jrue Holiday is an above average point guard and still an upgrade (even not a huge one), while Tyreke should be able to fully embrace and succeed in a Sixth Man role if he is supplied one (which the Pelicans should). New Orleans with three primary ball handlers in Gordon, Evans, and Holiday will begin the season with major chemistry issues on offense to start the season and no one on the roster is really a standout defender, yet (except of course the all mighty Al-Farouq Aminu). They probably won't succeed this year and will be back in the lottery for the third year in a row only this time to give their pick to another team. Thats not to say this team won't improve in the future as this is an extremely talented roster with almost every major player having plenty of potential left. There's really no telling how good the Pelicans could end up being if everything fall together just right. All the young players should improve on defense, though no one but Holiday, Davis, and Aminu project to be anything more than decent at most, and as bench depth is added the future is bright in the Big Easy.

I'm gonna put off the Eastern Conference for another day, but disclaimer it will only be for the last seed as I see the Wizard's and Hawks taking the sixth and seventh seeds. 

A quick what if:  I remember reading in 2000 Tim Duncan almost joined Tracy Mcgrady and Grant Hill in Orlando. lets say Grant Hill stays healthy, that team if it meshes is almost guaranteed dynasty and my opinion and I get giddy just thinking about it. Also in 2003 Jason kidd almost joined Manu and Duncan in San Antonio another super team that was barely evaded. Now the first one would probably lead to Mcgady and Grant Hill being Hall of Fame locks instead of the borderline ex-players they are now. People especially forget how amazing Grant Hill was early in his career. Meanwhile who picks Dwight Howard in 2004 and does Dwightmare still happen? For the Spurs scenario it may or may not have lead to Tony Parker being traded. To who of for what is an anyones guess but how his career would have turned out behind Kidd or out San Antonio all together is an interesting thought. 

2013-2014 NBA Season: 7th and 8th Seed Conference Projections

Who's gonna make the Playoffs?

This offseason has had us see multiple NBA team's attempting to tank for next year's Super Draft 2013, also known as the riggin for Wiggins tactic. We have also witnessed playoff teams either turning themselves into title contenders, desperately trying to stay ones, attempt to return without committing much money to the future, or purposely get worse for the draft   fallen out of the hunt completely. In each conference the first six playoff teams are pretty obvious in many fans and writers minds alike. The common consensus, one i completely agree with is the Heat, Pacers, Bulls, Nets, Knicks, and Wizards (or Hawks depending on the person) in some order in the east (p.s. this order is what the standings will be year end IMHO). Meanwhile in the extremely deep as always west it is almost impossible to predict what the conference standings will be at year end. On the other hand, baring serious injuries to star players, there's no denying that it will consist of some combination of the Clippers, Rockets, Spurs, Warriors, Grizzlies, and Thunder. This leaves two seeds left in each conference up to debate. Who will end up there at season's end is anyone's guess, and since I'm anyone, here's mine. 

Western Conference: Trial Blazers and TWolves 

Between the Laker's and Nugget's corpses, Mavericks, Timberwolves, Trail Blazers, and maybe even the Jazz, its gonna be one hell of a battle for a chance to be swept in the first round. Lets start with saying the Jazz have a very outside chance since this would be breaking on essentially their entire starting lineup breaking out. The chance of Alec Burks, Gordon Heyward, Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter, and Trey Burke all solid NBA starter is pretty low but not entirely outside the realm of possibility. 

Meanwhile the Lakers put all their chips in on Dwight Howard, a forty year old Steve Nash, playing a thirty four year old Kobe Bryant until he literally fell apart, and assuming Paul Gasol and really everyone in general would manage to fit into Mike D'antoni's disaster  system (not to mention no bench). Looking back on it, its really not to surprising it didn't all work out. Although I'd be easily convinced that another coach...coff coff Phil Jackson... excuse me I have a terrible case of hindsight, would have been able to make all the pieces fit together. Listen the team was plagued by injuries all year not helping their trouble meshing together and in another universe we are talking about the NBA Champion Lakers and how Dwight Howard is ready to take the Laker Torch from NBA Finals MVP Kobe Bryant (In another world there's a Laker super team juggernaut winning multiple titles with CP3, D12, and the Black Mamba but that's a story for another time). Meanwhile this offseason they've replace Howard by getting rid of the man formerly known as Ron Artest, adding Swaggy P and Chris Kaman, and bringing back Jordan Farmar. So obviously thats a title contender right there right once Kobe come's back opening nigh after spending the offseason taking steroids, deer antler spray, enriched vampire blood, and injecting his children's platelets into his knees. Not so fast... what's that Steve Nash and Pau Gasol's dead bodies can at least drag them to an 8th seed? Not a chance! This team's defense is  gonna be atrocious, their bench will be horrendous once again unless Wesley Johnson sum how fulfills his top 4 pick selection. There's no possible way I see this team making the playoffs and they looks to be mediocre to awful in every category. I already covered the Nuggets in my last article but honestly the J.J. Hickson and Timothy Mozgov signings make no sense especially in combination. In a conference this deep I'm not confident in replacing Iggy and Galinari's production with Nate Robinson, Randy Foye, the fore mentioned players, and the Village Idiot finally breaking out. That leaves Dalls, Portland, and Minnesota.

 I've applauded the Trial Blazers offseason already and they've improved themselves even more with their Mo Williams dirt cheap signing. I think they have the best chance out of all these teams of grabbing a seed personally (though as we'll get to Kevin Love and company are very close). They won't play very good defense but their competition looks to be just as bad if not worse so I don't see this dragging them out of the playoff race much. With the addition of Robin Lopez they have a very solid starting lineup that should average eighty point on its own easily. They're bench will also score plenty with tons of three point and scoring options and potential breakout players in C.J. Mcollum and to a lesser extent Thomas Robinson. 

Meanwhile the Timberwolves have assembled a similar core after resigning Nikola Pekovic and Chase Budinger  and signing Kevin Martin and Corey Brewer. While their offense is going to be hard to beat, their defense is lacking practically any plus defenders past Rubio and Brewer (who are by no means stoppers). That's not to say Portland's defense is much better its more excluding Lillard who was a rookie mind you, their starting five are at least decent defenders, while Kevin Love, Pekovic, and especially Kevin Martin are big minuses. Their bench is also gonna be pretty decent as well though with Shved, Barea, Brewer, Muhammad, Dieng, and Derrick WIlliams providing production. None of those guys really stand out considering two are lottery busts and the rest aren't exactly sixth men of the year caliber players. Compared to the Mavericks I say its close, but I'd give it to the Twolves for the 8th seed. While Rubio and Calderon aren't too far apart, (Calderon is a master on offense but a horrible defender, Rubio great playmaker and capable defender but he can't score easily), Kevin Martin and Monta Ellis cancel each other out , Shawn Marion and Budinger might be a toss up, I have to say I think Kevin Love when healthy is a notch above Dirk at this point in their careers. I'd take Rubio and Love over Calderon and Dirk any day in 2013 and I think thats the difference. Plus Perkovic is a better than Dalembert and the Mavericks don't have a bench that seems to be any better than the Wolves. Therefore I present the seventh and eighth seeds in the 2013-2014 Wester Conference, the Portland Trail Blazers and Minnesota Timberwolves. 

Eastern Conference Pt.2 tomorrow 

One Year Later: The Dwight Howard Trade

Who really Won the Dwight Howard Mega-Deal?

 Last season was really no different than this one, the entire focus was where is Dwight Howard going and how should we next bash his immaturity and indecision. The end result of that offseason was three teams seemingly improving their teams with a Top-15 talent and the Orlando Magic left with a multitude of future draft picks, mid first round prospects, and Al Harrington and Aaron Afflalo's contracts. Now a year later, the team that let the Lakers steal Dwight Howard seems to have somehow won the deal where they gave away the franchises best play since Shaq for seemingly nothing. Considering Moe Harkless and Nikola Vucevic are nothing more than solid starters at their max potential (Nikola already is), and the picks may not produce anything at all worthwhile, they may have won by default. Howard has left the city of angles for Texas, Bynum's maturity and body betrayed him once again, this time shattering his career, and Iggy has taken his defensive prowess and jack of all trades ability to the up and coming Warriors. The Sixers were completely destroyed by the deal, left in shambles and now are in full on rebuild, trading star player Jrue Holiday. With the Bynum trade ruining their team their future is now in the hands of Nerlens Noel, Michael Carter Williams, and whoever they draft next year (Andrew Wiggins, just a hunch). Denver who looked to be the reincarnation of the mid-2000's Detroit Pistons, title contender with no superstar,  has quickly fallen apart post-Melo era after a surprisingly strong two seasons following the trade. Without their GM, longtime Head Coach,  and two of their three best players for most of next season (Andre gone forever, Danilo for at least half) full on rebuild seems the only option right now, at least to get them into the amazing 2014 draft class next year.  The Lakers are an aging mess and should be praying they can get the serious talent they need in next years free agent bananza, which I'm sure they will. This past season and the up and coming one will count in my book as some of the most shocking failures at a championship run we have seen in a long time in sports. A year ago we were raving about the next Laker dynasty, last season they were a fringe playoff team, and next season is not looking good. Just think, what would the landscape of the NBA look like today if that Chris Paul to the Lakers trade had gone through, its a whole different league.  Where would D12 have gone? Which, brings us back to the Magic, who after ripping off the Bucks in the J.J. Reddick deal, (poor Bucks they really try I'll give them that, and have drafted pretty well with mediocre late lottery picks recently) and receiving Tobias Harris, and drafting Victor Oladipo have a nice core developing. While I agree they do need to draft a franchise point guard or natural scorer, Jameer Nelson while no where near the All Star he once was and Glen Davis give them good veterans to help the younger players develop. In this upcoming draft if I'm the Magic I'm going all point guard but if a guy like Aaron Gordon or Jabari Parker is available when they're up, going after the best possible player might be the best possible strategy. Last thought for them, while I admit they have made some shrewd (and lucky to be honest) moves, Moe Harkless and Oladipo might not develop into anything more into good defense and energy guys and they still have a long rode back.

A Tangent On Rebuilding

Rebuilding is becoming quite popular in the NBA as many teams are attempting to tank for next year supposedly amazing draft. At the same time many teams who have recently traded superstars or suffered major injuries to their star player are finally getting back into contention. Portland, New Orleans, and to a lesser extant the Magic, Denver (who is now seemingly going backwards), and Utah are rebuilding seemingly rather quickly and successfully after loosing their star player. Portland has recovered quite well from loosing Brandon Roy, and while injuries to him and Greg Oden ruined a possible championship contenting team, two very smart drafts and one great so far free agency have made poor moves for Jamal Crawford, Gerald Wallace, and Raymond Felton irrelevant and solved. Last year a league worst bench kept the team from the playoffs and drafting C.J. Mccollom and Allen Crabbe, signing Dorell Wright and C.J. Watson, and trading for Robing Lopez and Thomas Robinson give them a 6 deep and very solid bench. I've already covered Utah basically as well as the Magic so lets concentrate on Denver first. This team should honestly tank next season, as their offseason has been a disaster. While I understand the whole George Karl thing somewhat considering his poor playoff record with them, he's still the coach of the year and the way they handled it could have been better. Letting Masai Ujiri go as well because of money was even worst considering how he orchestrated their immediate, as in 30 second, rebuild following Melo's trade. They're gonna miss Afflalo without Danilo Gallinari for most of the year and no more Andre Igroudala. Ty Lawson is gonna have a ton on his hands and there's gonna be a lot of pressure for Javale Magee to step up especially considering his contract. They're going nowhere next year except at the most another first round exit with their current roster and considering the ownership seems to be relatively cheap the draft seems their best hope for now, a dynamic shooting guard or center if they give up on Magee would be wise. The newly minted Pelicans have had a very interested in offseason and seem to be kinda treading water a bit at this point. I questioned give up a top five protected pick next year in the Noel for Holliday deal and I question the deal giving up Robin Lopez and Greivis Vazquez for Tyreke Evans even more. Its not that I have anything against Holliday or Evans as I think they are both quality players but he plays the same position as Eric Gordon who I think is extremely capable when healthy and might struggle at small forward. Jrue Holliday while an All Star last year, had his stats inflated by having to carry the wait of an injury riddled Sixers team and hasn't improved improved his steals, shooting percentage, or three point percentage at all since his second year in the league. They have absolutely no depth except a woeful Austin Rivers now, who I personally hope can muster something out of NBA career. Trading Gordon would leave absolutely nothing to show for the Chris Paul deal and while a lineup of Holliday, Gordon, Evans, Ryan Anderson, and Anthony Davis can maybe make the playoffs, I see them suffering the same fate as the Trail Blazers did this past season. Still if everyone develops and plays to their talent, this extremely young team could be quite the force very very soon 

NBA and Trade Analysis

Trade Analysis 

NBA 

Trade#: Knicks-Toronto: Andrea Bargnani for two future second round picks, 2016 first round, Marcus Camby, and Steve Novak. Every year there's those trades where no one really wins, and while you can argue no one won the Clippers-Suns-Bucks deal, neither the Knicks or Raptors future chances of winning have been improved here. At least thats what it seems like on paper, however if we dig deeper the Raptors actually could be real winners here. Now Camby while a quality center for most of his career is way past his prime and Steve Novak, is well Steve Novak. However, Bargnani isn't much more seven foot Steve Novak who is worst at threes, defense (somehow), and adjusted for position no better than Novakaine at rebounding. Moreover second round picks are valuable throw in trade chips and a future first round pick is extremely valuable in this salary cap driven age (Denver FYI has rights to swap picks in 2016 with Toronto now via the Carmelo deal with the Knicks). Unless there were better offers out there for Bargnani, which isn't totally impossible but pretty unlikely, not a bad deal for Toronto giving them at least some future young prospects. The Knicks on the other hand look like they saw New Jersey  ... ahem... Brooklyn stealing the spotlight with their mega deal, and Glen Grunwald and he who shall not be named... I mean James Dolan my apologies deciding everyone needed to know who really wears the big boy pants in the Big Apple. Its not an awful trade for them by any means but they gave up trade chips even though they weren't that valuable (movable contracts are what they are) and future picks (the Knicks giving up a first round pick is always a bad sign a-la Eddy Curry). The simple fact though is that Andrea even if he comes back to the poor, and I mean dirt poor, man's version of Dirk he seemed to be shaping up to three years ago, he adds nothing to the team. He's essentially Italian Stoudamire and Novak rolled into one, awful defense (both), poor rebounding (both though more Novak), and injury prone (Amar'e). The Knicks were top three in offense and top ten in three pointers made last season so there's very little room for extra offense. Meanwhile they were only top twenty in rebounding and defense something a guy like Camby would have surely helped more than Andrea. At least the Knicks will have a ton of cap space in 2015-16, whoever's in that class of free agents. I'm pretty sure the Knicks missed their only title window last season with the currently constructed team (Chandler, Melo, Amar'e), which is sad to say not only because I'm a Knick fan, but because well I'm a Knick fan who needs a championship not from before all the current NBA players were born.

NBA Offseason Winners and Loosers So Far

NBA Offseason Winners and Losers: Post Draft

Winner #2: Utah Jazz

#2. Utah Jazz: While its hard to name a team a winner after just one trade being their only real offseason move, I think getting the NCAA men's basketball player of the year suffices. Trey Burke is an unbelievably great fit with this team and Utah was desperate for a true point guard. Considering they gave up only the last lottery pick and a mid first round pick up for him makes this trade look even better especially considering how week the draft was. If you think about who was available when those picks were up, even if Trey Burke doesn't develop into an All-Star point guard Utah really made a smart and wise decision here. With a young core of Trey Burke, Enes Kanter, Alec Burks, Gordon Hayward, and Derrick Favors the Jazz's future is looking bright, even if they let their front court duo of Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap go. I'd be interested to see whats next for this team and in my opinion considering how talented and deep the West is, the best course of action may be to let both Al and Paul go, (at least one of them should be allowed to walk) and follow the current NBA trend of tanking for next years draft where they might be able to find the missing impact young piece this team needs to put them over the top, I say a dynamic guard/small-foward.

Theres a lot of potential in the Great Salt Lake

NBA Offseason Winners and Loosers So Far

NBA Offseason Winners and Losers: Post Draft

Winner #1: Portland Trail BLazers

1. Portland Trail Blazers: So far in this surprisingly very interesting NBA offseason, one team has made four frugal and smart decisions to solve their glaring issues, the Trail Blazers. Coming into the period following a season where a bright future seemed ahead, Portland seemed to have a few glaring weaknesses keeping them out of the playoffs. First off, they had to replace free agent to be J.J. Hickson, who played the role of center way better than could have been hoped but is also a natural power forward fit. Now 2012 draftee Meyers Leonard was meant to be that replacement, but he seems to be a year or two away at least and is still developing. Drafting Jeff Withey in the second round, a player projected by many to land in the 20s of the first round, is a perfect fit. While neither player has much of an established offensive game yet, especially Withey, Leonard's potential and Withey's defense gives them at least decent depth at the position. Portland is rumored to also be going after Tiago Splitter to start at center but they would be smart to not overpay him and might better be served going after a cheaper option like Samuel Dalembert or Chris Kaman. The teams other huger need, bench depth has been solved outstandingly without even signed a free agent. This year C.J. Mccollum and Allen Crabbe were also both drafted, give them cheap and very solid guard depth. Both are excellent shooters and C.J. has the makings of an excellent sixth man. Trading a European prospect and two second round picks for former lottery pick Thomas Robinson give them at the very least another big men and if he develops would give them an excellent bench option and possibly convince the team to shop the disgruntled Lamarcus Aldridge.  Free agent Wings Mickael Pietrus, Cory Maggette, Earl Clarke, DeMarre Carroll, and Carl Landry among others would be great options to solidify the rest of the bench. 

The future is looking bright in rip city

 Coming up for Winners: Toronto Raptors, Utah Jazz, New Orleans Pelicans,